4

Finally, an update

It’s been over nine months since my last post, and I may wind this site down soon, but I want to give an update because I appreciate the readers I’ve accrued over the past year or two. If you’re on Twitter, so am I: @NatHunt_ — a lot of good stock conversation occurs on Twitter.

2015 – looking back

2015 was a rough year for pretty much every microcap investor I’ve talked to. Nothing illustrates this better than a chart I saw on Twitter in early November:

Nanos - Nov 2015

It’s hard to read, but it shows nano-caps (sub-$50mm market cap) down 31.3% YTD through November 2. And you see a correlation that the smaller the market cap, the worse the performance in 2015.

Conversely, microcaps seem to be having a solid 2016 so far (just my anecdotal observation of my own portfolio and other microcap conversation I follow).

My portfolio lost money at a 15% annualized rate in 2015 (I like to use the annualized rate to account for additions and subtractions of capital). It actually felt a lot worse. I had a lot of big losers, which I don’t really feel like re-hashing. But I’ll just name two that start with “P” because they’re coming to mind: PFHO and PTNT (now PRZM).

Domains

Thankfully, I stumbled into a side business during 2015 that became quite profitable: buying and selling domain names. I had very attractive returns here.

If you or anyone you know is looking to start a stock-related website, I have the perfect name:

TenBagLogo

It truly is a perfect name for a stock blog, offered at $595. Payment is easy via PayPal or Escrow.com. I can be contacted directly via my About page if you are interested.

I have many, many catchy business names for sale, including Stockama ($1,595). Most of my names do not pertain to the stock-niche. Many are so versatile that they could be used in virtually any industry. The curious may browse here: Nat Hunt’s business names for sale.

2016 so far

So, admittedly, my attention shifted from stocks to domains in 2015. Over the past few months, I got rid of all but three of my holdings. Readers of this site should recognize all three.

Alloy Steel International (Pink:AYSI)

For $1.17 (last trade), you get:

  • $0.76 of cash (no debt)
  • $0.24 of recently written down property that is actively being shopped
  • A business that earned:
    • $0.31 in 2015
    • $0.26 in 2014
    • $0.28 in 2013
    • $0.20 in 2012
    • $0.14 in 2011

A good overview of AYSI was published two weeks ago on Seeking Alpha: Alloy Steel International – Highly Attractive Risk-Reward Opportunity.

See the article for the risks, as well as the opportunity.

Pro-Dex (Nasdaq:PDEX)

Pro-Dex has finally started to move after years of stock price stagnation while a multi-year turnaround was underway. I think we’ve only just begun to move. The stock is up 49% since reporting a break-out quarter in February. Maybe most tellingly, insiders continued to buy shares at the new, elevated price. And just yesterday, PDEX announced a re-authorization of its share buyback program.

VirTra Systems (Pink:VTSI)

A week-and-a-half ago, VTSI won a contract with the State Department that I’m hopeful could be worth 2X annual revenue. The company is positioned perfectly to help tense interactions between police and citizens resolve more safely.

2016 – return to date

My stock portfolio has grown at a 102% annualized rate so far this year.

Nat Hunt

4 Comments

  1. Hi Nat,

    How do evaluate and calculate intrinsic value for turnaround stocks like PDEX ?
    Based on what (and if 🙂 ) you set the target price ?
    Thank you very much,
    Baruch

    • Baruch,

      I don’t have an intrinsic value for PDEX or the other stocks I own. I just try to find situations that I think are so undervalued that they will likely go up significantly.

      Regarding PDEX, I have sold about half of my shares over the past month, mostly out of prudence.

  2. I have bought two more stocks since I wrote this article: Cadus Corporation (KDUS) and ALJ Regional Holdings (ALJJ).

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